From MediaPost- full story here

Print, Radio Revs Braced For 2012 Declines

by Erik Sass, Jan 25, 2012, 5:32 PM

2012 doesn’t hold much hope for some of the main traditional media categories, including newspapers, magazines and radio, judging by the latest advertising forecast from MagnaGlobal, which sees revenue losses for all three media. The declines come amid growing competition from online advertising, as well as continuing economic uncertainty.

Total U.S. radio advertising revenues will decrease 0.8% in 2012, according to MagnaGlobal, which also predicts declines of 5.2% for magazines and 6% for newspapers. These drops are especially noteworthy because MagnaGlobal forecasts overall U.S. advertising growth of 2% to just shy of $150 billion, when Olympic and political advertising are discounted. Including these special categories, total advertising will grow 3.7% to almost $153 billion.

This growth will have to come from other media. Thus, MagnaGlobal sees Internet media jumping 10.9%, due mostly to continued increases in paid search, online video, and burgeoning mobile advertising. Broadcast TV will grow 8.5% in 2012, largely on the strength of the Olympics and political ads. Outdoor media will experience more modest but sustained growth, with a 4% increase in 2012.

MagnaGlobal explained the misfortunes of radio and print, as well as the slow growth rate for media in general: “A weak economic environment and high unemployment (forecast to remain above 8%) will result in cautious consumption growth and marketing expenditure."

The new forecasts for magazines and newspapers are especially ominous, coming on the heels of earlier declines. Through the third quarter of 2011, newspapers have experienced 21 straight quarters of year-over-year revenue declines, according to the Newspaper Association of America, and the fourth quarter is expected to bring another revenue decline.

Total magazine ad pages dropped 8% in the fourth quarter of 2011, following a 5.6% drop in the third quarter -- ending an anemic recovery, as sustained growth failed to take hold after the downturn of 2008-2009.

Interesting article from MediaPost. I think they are right in their prediction of US News' future. Full story with interesting comments here

Killing Your Print Business Starves Your Brand

by Ari Rosenberg, Thursday, November 11, 2010, 12:00 PM

"News you can use" is no more.  In case you haven't heard, U.S. News & World Report, the former weekly magazine that rode this tagline into media departments with flair and confidence after Mort Zuckerman purchased it in 1984, has suspended its magazine business except for a few planned one-offs throughout the year.  The company will rely solely on its Web site to drive revenue moving forward. 

Its press release read like a suicide note. 

Even when pages were not included in a buy, the U.S. News print platform gave the brand a unique and credible point of differentiation when up against Web-only properties.  Now they are going head to head with sites that do online better than they do.  It would be like a diner, located next door to a Five Guys, changing its menu to burgers only.   

The number of U.S. News readers who follow this brand online once they stop getting the magazine, will be vastly smaller than the number the brand will abandon -- so overall audience will take a huge hit.  But the hardest hit will be the brand's perceived value.  It will become less relevant to consumers and less significant in an online ad market great at drowning brand value in exchange for cheaper prices.

Someone once shared with me an interesting and provocative perspective on the print advertising business.  He is the former president of The Onion.  At The Onion, he knew his advertising profits came from his brand's Web site.   He also knew he was losing money publishing a free paper distributed in multiple markets.   So why did he stay in the print business?  Easy. Publishing his brand in print became a marketing expense to help increase the brand's awareness, credibility, and value.  

The print platform of a content brand not only drives incremental traffic and subsequent page views to the brand's Web site (and related digital assets), it helps support higher CPMs online.  Removing this platform, and decreasing the overall number of advertising sales calls made on behalf of the brand, is an irrevocable mistake by U.S. News -- signaling an end, not a new beginning.

There is a restaurant in my neighborhood that I used to order business lunches from three to four times a week.    Once or twice a week, I would also order myself dinner.  Needless to say, I was a very good customer.  Two months ago, the restaurant stopped opening for lunch.

I have not ordered dinner from them since.

Consumer appetites are fickle. Once you stop serving your brand the way they are used to consuming it, they pick something else off the menu. 

U.S. News strategists will find this out as they starve this once-proud brand into obscurity.

At Mediabids.com we have been conducting auctions for advertising space in newspapers and magazines successfully for more than 10 years using two patented online methods. Looks like TV is set try something similar using Google. It is interesting that there appear to be the same concerns among TV networks about using an auction format to sell inventory as there was among print outlets for Mediabids' auction system in the early days.

This from MediaPost:

Advertisers, agencies and television executives jockeying for the best price and placement is the dynamic that drives the upfront. It could yield profitable results if more television time was sold in scatter. The laws of supply and demand would still govern the best content on television and elsewhere. But the advertising auction approach employed by Google and the targeted, addressable science of Google TV (which has sold upfront time to Coldwell Banker and to Saatchi & Saatchi) could become plausible mainstays of the digital interactive market.

Advertisers say their reluctance to make huge upfront TV commitments does not put them at risk, since they are holding back en masse, generally able to secure the commercial time they wanted closer to air time in last season's scatter market, often at prices comparable to the upfront.

The ever-dwindling ratings and audience shares continue to be a drag on advertiser enthusiasm. More advertisers are feeling comfortable with more targeted, quantifiable ad placement online and a collective multimedia strategy that includes TV.