From MediaPost- full story here

Print, Radio Revs Braced For 2012 Declines

by Erik Sass, Jan 25, 2012, 5:32 PM

2012 doesn’t hold much hope for some of the main traditional media categories, including newspapers, magazines and radio, judging by the latest advertising forecast from MagnaGlobal, which sees revenue losses for all three media. The declines come amid growing competition from online advertising, as well as continuing economic uncertainty.

Total U.S. radio advertising revenues will decrease 0.8% in 2012, according to MagnaGlobal, which also predicts declines of 5.2% for magazines and 6% for newspapers. These drops are especially noteworthy because MagnaGlobal forecasts overall U.S. advertising growth of 2% to just shy of $150 billion, when Olympic and political advertising are discounted. Including these special categories, total advertising will grow 3.7% to almost $153 billion.

This growth will have to come from other media. Thus, MagnaGlobal sees Internet media jumping 10.9%, due mostly to continued increases in paid search, online video, and burgeoning mobile advertising. Broadcast TV will grow 8.5% in 2012, largely on the strength of the Olympics and political ads. Outdoor media will experience more modest but sustained growth, with a 4% increase in 2012.

MagnaGlobal explained the misfortunes of radio and print, as well as the slow growth rate for media in general: “A weak economic environment and high unemployment (forecast to remain above 8%) will result in cautious consumption growth and marketing expenditure."

The new forecasts for magazines and newspapers are especially ominous, coming on the heels of earlier declines. Through the third quarter of 2011, newspapers have experienced 21 straight quarters of year-over-year revenue declines, according to the Newspaper Association of America, and the fourth quarter is expected to bring another revenue decline.

Total magazine ad pages dropped 8% in the fourth quarter of 2011, following a 5.6% drop in the third quarter -- ending an anemic recovery, as sustained growth failed to take hold after the downturn of 2008-2009.

From AdAge: Full story here

Ad Pages Up for Fashion Magazines' Important March Issues

Vogue's March Issue Includes 443 Ad Pages

Most fashion magazines increased ad pages in their important March issues again this year, showing some strength in an uncertain economy.

Vogue's March issue includes 443 ad pages, nearly 4% above the year-ago level, the magazine said today. That's on top of a gain of 50 pages, or 13%, last March, according to Susan Plagemann, Vogue's VP-publisher since January 2010. "That's significant for us," Ms. Plagemann said. "We also beat our five-year average by 4.5%."

The ad-page count of the Conde Nast title will most likely beat any of its competitors, as Vogue has been selling the issue since last fall. "It's like every March for us," Ms. Plagemann said. "It's intense. We go at it early."

Vogue sibling W sold 204 ad pages into the issue -- 25% more than for last March -- including 20 from Saks Fifth Avenue to start its program around W's 40th anniversary later this year. The magazine is continuing to benefit from a 2010 redesign under Editor-in-Chief Stefano Tonchi, according to Nina Lawrence, VP-publisher at W. "Stefano Tonchi's W is a very big success," she said. "Our growth rate is accelerating."

Because marketers use them to introduce new looks, fashion magazines' March and September issues have long commanded extra attention from advertisers and readers. Media observers sometimes weigh September issues to get across just how many pages they carry. March is the next-most important issue.

"Fashion has become a much quicker industry, and most designers create at least four collections a year," Ms. Lawrence said. "But their major introductions tied to the runway shows are spring and fall, tied to March and September issues. If fashion depended on people waiting to buy the next round because their clothes wore out, it wouldn't be an industry. Spring is the introduction of the new season that ignites the engine for consumers to spend."

Advertisers sometimes respond to a soft economy by moving planned ad pages into March from surrounding issues, but that's not the case at W, according to Ms. Lawrence. "March is up, but February was up and April will be up, so it's not like we sucked the pages out of other issues," she said. "Our March is not the exception. It's what we're doing right now."

Glamour, another Conde title, said its March issue will have 181 ad pages, over 5% more than last year. Expanding on the Social SnapTag program Glamour offered marketers in last September's issue, the magazine got 27 advertisers to include SnapTags with e-commerce capabilities.

Allure will have 143 ad pages in March, up 5% from its 20th anniversary issue a year earlier.

Elle magazine -- publishing its first March issue as a Hearst Magazines title -- is running 319 ad pages, 2% more than last March. Elsewhere at Hearst, Marie Claire said its March issue will carry 181 ad pages, up 31%. Cosmopolitan's 121 ad pages mark a 20% gain from a year ago, the magazine said.

Harper's Bazaar, whose redesign will be introduced in March, said ad pages in the issue are up 15.5% from last year, to 271.

Continued economic weakness has made business tougher for marketers and magazines stuck between economy and luxury, according to Carol Smith, VP-publisher and chief revenue officer at Harper's Bazaar since May.

"We needed to choose a direction, and the only one for a magazine and brand like Bazaar is to become a more luxurious experience," Ms. Smith said. "That isn't to say precious and unattainable but is to say that Vogue, Elle and InStyle can do battle in the mass arena. We will never win [there]. I love mass brands, so it's not that Bazaar isn't a wonderful home for Maybelline, but it's a wonderful home for Mercedes, too."

Time Inc.'s InStyle said it has sold 347 ad pages into its March issue, 13% more than last March, when it posted a 20% jump. "In this economic climate, advertisers remain confident in InStyle's ability to deliver," said Publisher Connie Anne Phillips.

People StyleWatch, another Time Inc. title, saw ad pages decline 7%, to 135, ending a 31-issue streak of year-over-year ad-page increases.

From Comscore.com full story here

Nearly 50 Percent of Internet Users in Europe Visit Newspaper Sites

comScore Releases Overview of European Internet Usage for November 2011

LONDON, UK, 19 January 2012 - comScore, Inc. (NASDAQ: SCOR), a leader in measuring the digital world, today released an overview of Internet usage in Europe, showing that 379.4 million Europeans went online in November 2011 for an average of 27.8 hours per person. This release highlights Internet usage in 49 European markets aggregated into the European region and provides individual reporting on 18 markets. Amongst its findings, the study also showed that 47.8 percent of Europeans visit Newspaper sites, with a notable percentage of visits to the top 5 Newspaper sites preceded by a visit to Facebook.

Nearly 1 in 2 Europeans Visit Newspaper Sites
In November 2011, 181.5 million unique people in Europe visited Newspaper sites, an increase of 9 percent from the previous year. The Daily Mail continued to attract the largest audience at 20.1 million unique visitors, followed by the Guardian at 15.7 million unique visitors. Turkish newspapers Hürriyet and Milliyet and German newspaper Bild rounded out the top five Newspaper properties, with each attracting approximately 10 million unique visitors.

From Marketingcharts.org - full story here

Also see story below we linked to about the gross overestimates routine for online advertising.

US Online Ad Spend Set to Exceed Print (Update)

US online ad spending will exceed the total spent on print magazines and newspapers this year for the first time, according to a January 2012 eMarketer estimate that projects $39.5 billion in online ad spending, $19.4 billion in newspaper ad spending, and $15.4 billion in magazine ad spending. eMarketer estimates that online ad spending will continue its dramatic growth to reach $62 billion by 2016, while the print total will continue to decline to $32.3 billion that year.

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US online ad spend is expected to grow by 23.3% this year, with double-digit growth continuing through 2014 before slowing to 8.9% in 2015 and 7.8% in 2016.

TV Growth Unaffected

As online ad spending grows, so will TV, albeit more slowly, notes eMarketer, which estimates that US TV spending will reach $72 billion in 2016. At that point, the gap between TV and online ad spending will be $10 billion, compared to the $28.7 billion gap seen in 2011.

Overall, eMarketer projects total media ad spending to grow 6.7% this year to $169.5 billion, boosted by national election campaigns and gains in mobile spending. Growth will remain between 3-4% through 2016, with spending reaching almost $200 billion by then. And while online will be a major driver of that growth, traditional ad spending will for the most part stagnate during the period.

Q1-Q3 ‘11 Ad Spend Up 1.5%

Total US advertising expenditures in the first 9 months of 2011 increased 1.5% from the previous year, finishing the period at $104.7 billion, according to December 2011 data from Kantar Media. Spending growth slowed during Q3, up 0.4% compared to 2010, after rising 4.1% in Q1 and 2.8% in Q2. Spending among the 10 largest advertisers in the first 9 months of 2011 was $11.8 billion, representing a 1.4% decline compared to the previous year. Procter & Gamble maintained its top-ranked position with spending of $2.1 billion through September, down 5.6% compared to 2010, although its Q3 spending was flat compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, expenditures for the 10 largest categories grew 3.1% in the first 9 months of 2011, to $59.5 billion. For Q3, the aggregate increase was 1.8%, although quarterly growth rates for 7 of the 10 categories trailed their year-to-date average. Automotive was the top category with $9.9 billion of spending during the 9-month period, up 7% from 2010. However, the bulk of the gain came early in the year, and from April through September automotive budgets grew just 1%.

TV Ad Spending Rises

Most forms of TV displayed spending gains in Q3 2011: expenditures on cable networks rose 6.5% during Q3, while year-to-date outlays grew 9.9%. Network TV registered its first quarterly gain of the year, as Q3 expenditures inched up 0.2%, although year-to-date expenditures remained down 5.7%. Kantar insight suggests higher budgets from movie studios and consumer package goods marketers accounted for the Q3 increase for network TV, while the year-to-date decline can be attributed to the loss of marquee college football and basketball programming to cable networks in Q1.

Meanwhile, ad spending in Spanish Language Television jumped 18% during Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, while syndication TV was also up 14.8% for the period. The only TV segment to lose ground was spot TV, where spending fell 5.7% year-over-year in Q3, and was also down 2.7% for the year-to-date.

Overall, compared to the corresponding periods in 2010, TV ad spending grew 2.3% for the year-to-date, and 3.2% for Q3.

The top 10 TV advertisers, led by Procter & Gamble, spent $7.3 billion in the medium during the first 9 months of 2011, up 0.1% from a year ago. The group accounted for 15% of total TV expenditures by all advertisers.

Most Other Media Also Post Gains

Outdoor spending slowed during the third quarter, but still registered gains of 3.2% for Q3 and 8.6% for the first 9 months. The pace of spending in radio media was more muted, but remained steady, up a modest 1.1% in Q3 and 1.2% for the year-to-date, driven by over 2% growth in local radio and network radio advertising.

Magazine media spending declined 1.2% for Q3, but rose 1.5% for the year-to-date. The top 10 magazine advertisers invested $2.7 billion in the medium for the year-to-date, a decrease of 2.8%. As a proportion of total magazine ad spending by all advertisers, the top 10 accounted for 17.1%.

Although the internet sector posted a Q3 2011 drop of 2.9% compared to last year, overall expenditures for the year-to-date were up 2.8% compared to a year earlier. Display ad expenditures soared 15.8% in Q3 and 10.1% for the year-to-date, offsetting paid search drops of 14.4% and 2.1%, respectively. The 10 largest internet advertisers, led by General Motors, invested a total of $1.8 billion in paid search and display campaigns, up 11.1% versus a year ago, and accounting for 10.8% share of all internet ad dollars.

Newspapers Fare Poorly

The newspaper sector posted the worst figures of all media, experiencing a 3.7% decline in spending in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, and 3.8% decrease for the year-to-date. Local newspapers, despite robust budgets from local auto dealers and an uptick in financial advertising, saw a 4.4% spending decline in Q3, and were down 3.9% year-to-date.

Print Media Get Spending, Lack Consumption

Meanwhile, according to December figures from eMarketer, although newspapers accounted for 15% of all US ad spending in 2011, they held just a 4% share of adults’ daily media time. Magazines also held a much larger share of ad spending than daily media time, at 9.7% and 2.8%, respectively.

By contrast, eMarketer estimated that mobile accounted for 10.1% share of adults’ media time each day, but less than 1% of ad dollars. TV (42.5% vs. 42.2%), internet (25.9% vs. 21.9%), and radio (14.6% vs. 10.9%) all also displayed a higher share of adults’ daily time than share of US ad spending.

eMarketer notes that time spent with the internet excludes internet access via mobile, but online ad spending includes mobile internet ad spending. As such, the total of the ad spending share for all the media adds up to more than 100%.

Marketers More Bullish Than Agencies on Traditional Media Spend

A greater proportion of marketers than agencies believe that spending on traditional media such as direct mail (25% vs. 17%), print (22% vs. 8%), and radio (18% vs. 3%) will increase this year as compared to 2011, with the proportions expecting spend to increase on TV relatively on par, according to a survey released in January 2012 by RSW/US. And although the survey shows that increases in digital media spending will outpace that of traditional media, marketers’ planned increases do not appear to match agency expectations: a higher proportion of agencies than marketers expect spending to increase in social media (89% vs. 63%), mobile (72% vs. 46%), SEO (66% vs. 48%), and banner advertising (55% vs. 30%).

According to December 2011 figures from Kantar Media, outdoor (3.2%), TV (3.2%), and radio (1.1%) led all media in Q3 2011 year-over-year ad spend gains, while internet and newspaper ad spending declined 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively.

From www.marketingcharts.org

 

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